Deliverables

The primary objective of the deliverable is to create a scientific inventory of the Nexus and to advance the state-of-the-art in Nexus research. We conduct a thorough literature review on the interlinkages of Water-Energy-Food-Land-Climate and Climate Change. The literature review takes a holistic approach and focuses on the resource base, including both biophysical and socio-economic resources, on which we depend to achieve social, environmental and economic goals pertaining to the Nexus under climate change. Beyond the interlinkage’s analysis, we conduct an effort to decode the interlinkages of the Nexus, by creating an inventory concerning the basic information needed to know before hand for our case studies, how changes affect linkages on a mutual basis and of course, what are the most influential interlinkages that affect each Nexus Dimension under study. The social and economic implications of the Nexus linkages are considered basic components of our analysis so as to transact a profound and holistic approach of the Nexus. The effects on society in addition to economic implications are reported for each interlinkage, in an effort to specify and clarify the potential socio-economic outcomes. Lastly, we analyse and consider low carbon options as the driver to achieve environmentally friendly practices under the context of the Nexus, by investigating the implications of a low carbon energy sector for all Nexus domains.

The primary objective of this deliverable is the development of generic Use Cases for the SIM4NEXUS Serious Game. Such Use Cases is expected to be adapted to the SIM4NEXUS Case Studies and their specific learning goals. The goal of Use Cases is to capture how the user will interact with the Serious Game to achieve their specific goal. Under this framework, the functionality of the Serious Game is described. An important part of this process is to identify all relevant actors that will be involved in the Serious Game as well as the goal that each group of actors wishes to achieve. Use Cases will define any preconditions known to be true when the Use Case begins; basic flows, or steps the actors take to accomplish the goal of the Use Case; alternative flows, or less common user interactions with the Serious Game that can come up; exceptional flows, or anything that could happen to prevent the user from achieving their goal; and post conditions – what must be true when the Use Case is complete. The deliverable focuses also on the role that a Use Case has in the context of a Serious Game; the definition of group of actors that may be the final players of the Serious Game / users of Use Cases; and the presentation of generic Use Cases having been built so far for each nexus sector.

This report explores various features of the SIM4NEXUS models, and compares them to the requirements of the case studies and the serious game. There could be challenges in linking the modelling tools due to the different natures of their coverage, for example level of detail in geographical detail or length of forecast horizon. It should also be noted that the project includes both optimisation and simulation models, which have different underlying assumptions that require careful consideration when linking.

The primary objective of the Deliverable is to analyse the uncertainties of modelling tools within the SIM4NEXUS project, including behavioural uncertainty in decision-making. First, we classify different sources of uncertainties in different types of models. Next, we review available methodologies for their identification, analysis and communication in different contexts. Significant uncertainties come from using different models and their different assumptions, which will be analysed at the example of three models which are used within the SIM4NEXUS project. Within this context, we also analyse the relevance of behavioural uncertainties for the modelling of technological innovation, at the example of modelling the diffusion of energy end-use technologies in the residential sector.

The primary objective of this deliverable is the development of Use Cases for the SIM4NEXUS (S4N) Case Studies (CSs). Such Use Cases have been adapted to the generic ones, presented in deliverable D1.2 ‘Use Cases for SIM4NEXUS’. Use Cases for S4N CSs are connected to the learning goals of each CS and reflect its specific characteristics, goals, aspirations and future perspectives. It is recalled that the goal of Use Cases is to capture how the user will interact with the Serious Game (SG) to achieve their explicit goal. Under this framework, CSs built a series of Use Cases corresponding to the nexus sectors they are focusing on. They defined the goal of each Use Case, the actors involved, the actions that should be implemented towards the achievement of the goal, a group of indicators measuring the level of accomplishment of the goals as well as a number of successive steps that will be applied in the Serious Game environment describing: a) when the implementation of an action will be prompted by the SG, b) when the respective indicators will be estimated and c) chances to follow alternative paths in case the goal is not accomplished. A critical part of the entire process is the identification of actors wishing to test the SG along with the goals falling within their interest. Preconditions known to be true when the Use Case begins, alternative or/and exceptional flows, and post conditions that must be fulfilled when the Use Case is complete were also determined. The basic axes upon which the Use Cases for S4N CSs were designed are aligned to the priorities having been set by the EU as to the efficient use of resources under climate change conditions. Thus, among the main issues taken into consideration by case-specific Use Cases are: the transition towards a low-carbon economy, the mitigation of climate change impacts, the extensive exploitation of renewable energy sources, the protection of water resources (quality and quantity), the coverage of food needs (food security) and the sustainable management of land.

This deliverable presents the current version of the SIM4NEXUS nexus assessment framework. The framework is interpreted at this stage as a step-by-step methodology that describes the assessment of the nexus in the SIM4NEXUS project. Therefore, we start by summarising key steps of the framework from a processual angle. These result from the combination of activities that were and are being carried out in different work packages. In addition, and in support to the first steps of the framework, focus is given to aspects related to the independent understanding of nexus systems, with insights on how individual systems interact with other systems of the nexus of water, land, energy, food and climate. A review of integrated assessment modelling exercises is performed to explore the status-of-the-art of multi-systems assessments and what quantitative methods are used in such analyses. From the exploration of the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework it was found its usefulness for the systematization of information in each case study that enable the characterization of the nexus, identification of drivers and better understanding of impacts, responses and pressures. For this reason, the DPSIR is included in the framework as a tool for the formulation of narratives in each case study. Case study approaches in the development of their respective assessments, including stakeholder participation, is also summarised in this report. From the development of the wide range of case studies in SIM4NEXUS we aim at gain understanding of what is essential in the development of assessments of the nexus and, in this way, produce a framework which captures effectively the key elements towards the development of nexus compliant practices. Apart from the framework proposed in this deliverable, we consider an important outcome of the task T1.5 the production of a glossary of terms related to the science of the nexus. Its usefulness is supported not only by the necessity of harmonizing how different terms are understood within the project consortium and actors involved (from experts, to modellers, case study leaders, and stakeholders in general), but also as contribution to growing research community in the science of the nexus. The glossary also aims at standardizing, within the extent possible, terminology which is frequently used in resource nexus discussions and can facilitate communication with stakeholders and other audiences in contact with the work.

This deliverable extends the “basic” SSP2 global narrative used to develop a local narrative. (Global SSP2 data are retrieved from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) SSP database – and ‘downscaled’ where possible.) The local narrative is then simulated and a local scenario is developed. The narrative is simulated by running models applied to each case study. To do so, interactions at the nexus between each domain are found for each case study. The (nexus) interactions are then represented in the initial conditions of the thematic models for each case study. The thematic models are run with varying levels of integration. The output determines the baseline scenario. Inter-domain (nexus) dynamics, impacts and system responses inherent in the baseline are subsequently identified. The baseline scenario provides a picture of the outcomes expected from an SSP development future across the nexus domains, society and the economy. Against the Baseline Scenario, others can be compared. Different drivers, constraints and other assumptions will define those scenarios.

This deliverable identifies and reviews the policies at international and European scale that are relevant to the water?land?energy?food?climate nexus (WLEFC?nexus). Besides the policies directly aiming at these five nexus domains, other policies are relevant, especially in the context of strategies for a resource efficient and low?carbon economy in Europe. These are policies in the domains of economy, investment, R&D and innovation, ecosystems and environment, EU regions, development, risk & vulnerability and trade. Other policies may also be relevant, depending on the issues at stake, e.g. policies for economic sectors that have a key role in the SIM4NEXUS cases.

A nexus approach requires cross-sectoral commitment and shared perspectives Implementation of the UNFCCC Paris agreement on climate change gets more attention from national governments than the multi-sectoral Sustainable Development Goals. This unilateral focus may cause unwanted trade-offs. For example, subsidised growth of bio-energy crops has changed the agricultural landscape and water cycle, causing heat and drought in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. A nexus approach could be the answer. Ten cases investigated the translation of global and European policies for water, land, energy, food and climate, into national and regional policies, and they scored the horizontal coherence between policies. Most European policies have been integrated into national and regional policies. However, several factors may hinder implementation in practice. Also, more synergies than conflicts were found between policy objectives for different sectors, but this does not guarantee coherent implementation. Shared goals, perspectives and interests, as well as commitment and trust are enabling factors for successful cross-sectoral cooperation. Profound attention must be paid to these conditions in a nexus approach. The corresponding Background Report can be found below.

This background report to ‘SIM4NEXUS D2.2 Nexus-relevant policies in the transboundary, national and regional case studies’(Munaretto et al., 2018) provides the policy assessmentsconducted in all thetransboundary, national and regional case studies of the SIM4NEXUS project. In accordance with thegrant agreement, thebackground reports of the casesprovide: 1)an overview of nexus-relevant policies relevant to the case study); 2)an analysis of how global and European policy goals and targets are translated to lower governance levels and how policies are implemented); 3)an analysis of synergies, conflicts and related trade-offs between policies in the implementation phase; 4)an overview of solutions found to address trade-offs and exploit synergies from an institutional and governance perspective.

A Framework for good nexus governance was developed based on literature and cases. Successful nexus policy has many dimensions and is multi scale. It concerns the whole policy cycle and depends on political will, mindset, knowledge management and careful organisation of the process. Success factors for the policy-making process were categorised into Knowledge management, Dealing with uncertainty and complexity, Social dynamics, Resources and Monitoring. Uncertainty and complexity are intrinsically linked to a nexus approach and require an experimental pathway, so effective monitoring must be in place. As the list of success factors is extensive, the question arises when nexus governance is ‘good enough’. This must be explored by applying the success factors in practice. European policy for water, land, energy, food and climate reckons with trade-offs. However, there is no institutionalised procedure for a comprehensive nexus assessment of new policies. The result of such assessment could define the nexus scope of the policy-making process. New integrating themes can stimulate a nexus approach. Such themes are for example circular and low-carbon economy, sustainable production, supply and consumption of healthy food, good management of land and water related to climate change adaptation and mitigation. These themes cross EU DGs, national ministries and scales, and are hubs for nexus approaches. New institutions, temperate or permanent, can be developed around these hubs to facilitate the nexus policy process.

The objective here is to identify improvements to the governing of s current policy problems for water, land, energy, food and climate (WLEFC).

The growth strategy of the European Green Deal on the one hand is ambitious and on the other hand contains many conflicts of interest. The Horizon 2020 project SIM4NEXUS intends to facilitate the detailing and implementation of this strategy from a nexus viewpoint that considers the interlinkages between water, land, energy, food and climate (WLEFC nexus).

The primary objective of the Deliverable is to report on the first application of the thematic models to selected case studies. The thematic models are applied both to support nexus-compliant decision making in the case studies and as an input for the development of complexity methodologies. This Deliverable summarises the work undertaken during the first year of the project. First, we describe the process undergone to select the suitable thematic models to be applied in each case study. Next, we define the setup of the simulation exercise, particularly the baseline scenario chosen for the preliminary run of the models. Finally, we report on the simulations done with each thematic model.

This deliverable reports on the data flow between WP3 and WP4 for the development of the System Dynamics Models for each project study in WP3 and the information exchange for the development of the Serious Game in WP4. It is an intermediate report, showing that at the end of M18 the Architecture of the data base, the data flow, the metadata ontology, and data management have been defined.

Climate data of the past and climate scenarios are a crucial input to the case studies of the project. Suitable products could be identified and obtained from the ISIMIP project (PIK), these are bias-adjusted gridded data with a 0.5-degree spatial solution originating from five different GCMs. All regional, national, and transboundary case studies have been provided with cut-outs from these data. For economic data, it was agreed to use the Shared Socio-economic Pathway 2 (“Middle of the Road”) in all case studies. As this scenario only provides information on GDP and population, a Computable General Equilibrium model has been used to “downscale” economic variables at a finer level in terms of industries and spatial detail. A general problem of spatio-temporal data is the diversity of spatial discretisations and, to a lesser extent, different time steps. This is highlighted in an extra chapter.

This work package (WP3), concerns the development and implementation of the complexity science in all the SIM4NEXUS case studies. This deliverable is an important outcome from Task 3.4, delivering in detail the modelling for complexity science with regards to the Nexus, as well as the models developed using System Dynamics as the preferred method of integration (Deliverable 3.2).

The primary objective of the Deliverable is to report on the application of the thematic models to each SIM4NEXUS case study. The thematic models are applied both to support nexus-compliant decision making in the case studies and as an input for the development of complexity methodologies. First, we describe the process undergone to select the suitable thematic models to be applied in each case study. Next, we define the setup of the simulation exercise, particularly the baseline and simulation scenarios chosen for each case study. Finally, we report on the simulations done for each case study.

This Deliverable presents the final versions of the developed system dynamics models for all 12 SIM4NEXUS case studies. It also presents results for all the cases. These results have been validated by local case study owners.

This deliverable reports on the data flow between WP3 and WP4 for the development of the System Dynamics Models for each project study in WP3 and the information exchange for the development of the Serious Game in WP4. It is a final report, showing that at the end of the project (M48) the Architecture of the database, the data flow, the metadata ontology, and data management have been developed. More concretely, it firstly defines the Semantic Repository, which is the storage where all information related to the Nexus (e.g. nexus variables, policy cards, policy objectives, etc), the specific Case Studies, and the Serious Game, among others, is stored in a standardised manner, making use of semantic technologies. However, not all information is needed to be stored in the Semantic Repository, but is really important for the construction of the System Dynamic Models. These files, the folder structure where they are stored, the way they are shared, and accessed is provided in this report. Finally, all this information will be put in production in the Serious Game User Interface. For doing that, web services are used to interchange information between the different modules in the SIM4NEXUS architecture. The current version of the architecture, the modules, and the web service are also provided in this report.

Task 4.1 has defined a first version of the SIM4NEXUS Serious Game tool learning goals considering: i) the scope of the game, ii) the contents to be included, iii) the knowledge to be imparted, and iv) the assessment items needed to test the learning. The learning goals are oriented by two main purposes: i) to allow users to learn about concrete facts, terminology, acronyms, concepts, rules, procedures and soft skills related to the Nexus management domain; and ii) to gain insight into the decisions and behaviours of the players.

This document presents SIM4NEXUS Data Management Plan (DMP) for open access data handling (see box 1). This Data Management Plan is compiled according to the Guidelines on FAIR Data Management in H20201, and the Guidelines to the Rules on the Open Access to Scientific Publications and Open Data Access to Research Data in H20202.

This document reports on how the data will be handled during the SIM4NEXUS project. The goal is to consider the many aspects of data management, data and metadata generation, data preservation and maintenance, and analysis, ensuring that data is well managed in the present, and prepared for preservation in the future.

The main results are the development of the Game Logics flowcharts focused in the user interaction during the game setup and the gameplay flowchart. Also the role of the user in the game has been defined by means of an entity-relationship diagram. In regard to the system requirements, they have been divided into two groups: Serious Game requirements and KEE requirements. Both software and hardware requirements have been specified providing a development environment based on VMs and specifying how this development environment will be deployed to production. Some technical solutions for the development have been proposed making a stress on the openness and interoperability of the final solution.

This document presents the SIM4NEXUS Semantic Repository (SR) to improve the Nexus understanding, including open access to the policies information and objectives.

The development of the SIM4NEXUS Serious Game (SG) tool has reached an important achievement, and it is considered to be finished, thanks to the implementation and integration of its four main components: i) the Graphical User Interface (GUI), ii) the Knowledge Elicitation Engine (KEE), iii) the SIM4NEXUS Database and iv) the System Dynamic Models Engine (SDM Engine). Each one of these elements has an essential role in the Game system and its crucial for the correct behaviour of the tool.

The present document describes, how the S4N Integration Centre is organized and deployed to coordinate the S4N platform and all the validation tasks implemented to ensure a high-quality system in terms of availability, capacity, interoperability, performance, reliability, robustness, safety, security, resilience and usability.

This document presents Data Management Plan (DMP) on open access data handling (see box 1) defined for SIM4NEXUS project.

This report, which is the second deliverable that deals with the learning goals, provides an update considering every particularity of each case study at this stage of the project. A methodology to update the learning goals was developed and has been reused for this update. The approach from the first deliverable forms the basis of this report, and is used in all iterations as the project gains insights on each case study. Thanks to this methodology, which results in a set of guided steps for information collection and learning goals definition, a more comprehensive and precise analysis has been able to be done. More concretely, this has helped: (i) case study leaders and other involved actors to better explain their needs and objectives, (ii) requirements collection in a common framework, (iii) collaborative discussion and evolution of requirements, decisions, and objectives, and finally, (iv) learning goals definition.

This report presents the framework for the case studies implementation, throughout the project and in coordination with the other Workpackages. The case studies have a central role in SIM4NEXUS as they represent the field of application and testing for all methods, concepts and tools created in other Workpackages. The implementation of the case studies will follow 4 steps: • Launching the case study processes; • Description and prioritisation of the Nexus challenges; • Addressing the Nexus challenges; • From results to policy recommendations.

The objective of this Deliverable is to report on stakeholders ́ engagement in identifying the major nexus challenges and to provide a first assessment in applying the thematic models in the Andalusian case study. This process is the initial step of the case-study work in SIM4NEXUS towards the building of a Serious Game through system dynamic modelling. The overall modeling process is conducted in close collaboration with stakeholders, which have been engaged in identifying the nexus challenges and will be engaged invalidating the models and using the Serious Game.

The project has given proof that all 12 SIM4NEXUS complexity science models have been developed, populated with data, and run, with preliminary results produced for each. WP3 has developed a timeline for the Serious Games in the case studies, conclude on the following tasks and finalise deliverables. A timeline is developed regarding the support from the thematic models to the case studies with model runs of the policy scenarios. Also, the Data Navigation Tool is presented, to allow for a consistency check of the data sets in the tool, achieve transparency of the datasets in the project, and eventually also identify any gaps in the data sets. The tool also offers context to the data, primarily through the dimensions of the variables in place.

The report does support the case studies in SIM4NEXUS to identify policy recommendations.

Tools and methodologies (i.e. conceptual model, steps to System Dynamics Modelling (SDM), and the flow of work from the SDM to the Serious Game) are offered to the case studies.

This report contains a summary of the policy recommendations from the 12 cases of the Horizon2020 project SIM4NEXUS, which investigated the linkages, i.e. the nexus, between the domains water, land, energy, food and climate (the ‘WLEFC Nexus’). They are shown in an overview clustered in seven themes in bold, with some prominent recommendations in italics and major objectives in bold and italics.

The Sim4Nexus Serious Game has achieved its primary educational goal: making the complex subject of the Nexus interactions between Water, Energy, Land, Food, and Climate accessible to a general audience.

This deliverable aims at providing a general description of the participatory processes the SIM4NEXUS Serious Game has used to connect to an audience.

This report assesses the current technical and IP status of the SIM4NEXUS project. All components are mapped, and the complex interactions among them which characterize the SIM4NEXUS project is analyzed, in particular in the light of intellectual property. The report proposes a draft exploitation strategy to be discussed among the project partners. A combined for-profit and Non-Profit exploitation is recommended to ensure the largest project impact, making the best of commercial exploitation of the System Dynamic Models, the Knowledge Elicitation Engine and the Serious Game, and of wide dissemination of the Nexus knowledge accumulated by the project.

The primary objective of this report is to develop the exploitation strategy of the SIM4NEXUS project. The exploitation strategy purpose is to define means and ways for the consortium partners to continue to collaborate and work together after the end of the project. For that purpose, the exploitation strategy makes several propositions of collaborations, based on three outcomes of the project which are the Nexus science, the serious game and the SIM4NEXUS-SPACE. The exploitation strategy is built around a 2-year trial period after the project’ end without any legal entity creation. After this test phase, the creation of a legal entity will be evaluated based on the results of the trial phase.

The SIM4NEXUS legacy report describes the project’s added values: the tools built, the frameworks and processes elaborated or tested, the knowledge acquired, the partnerships initiated and its role in the development of the nexus concept. For each added-value, follow-up steps are proposed to ensure the legacy and the report describes how SIM4NEXUS has targeted relevant audiences. The project has already produced some impacts which are demonstrated.

The project website has been prepared and is operational since M3. Updates will be realised on a regular basis. The website received a number of comments and suggestions from the partners during a consultation phase; these were incorporated into the website in M5.

This might be one of the shortest reports about the SIM4NEXUS Deliverables. The reason is the still immature development of the scientific output – there is only one (!) publication to report in the end of the first year of the project. This is, however, not an indication of low productivity: Generally, research projects rarely release scientific publications before the final stages of their runtime (and many reports are finalized only long after their project officially terminated), because such citeable contributions are typically based on validated results and their interpretation, in many cases also new methods and approaches have to be developed and tested in the first place. SIM4NEXUS does not differ in the last point, and therefore also the single reported contribution is still more of an appreciation of the Nexus research potentials which have to be surveyed in the years to come. This report will be updated in M48, and in the meantime articles will be tracked in Task 7.8.

This deliverable outlines the promotional materials produced under the Project thus far. It describes the process of creating the deliverables – including feedback rounds with Partners.

This paper gives an overview of the scientific publications.

This deliverable outlines the promotional materials produced under the Project thus far. It describes the process of creating the deliverables – including feedback rounds with Partners.

Scientific journal articles, colloquially just called “papers”, are the most authoritative means of conveying actual research progress -- at least among the scientific community. In many countries the fate of academic careers is closely connected to the number and frequency of first-authored publications. Personal bibliometric scores like the h-index (Hirsch 2005) are now easily calculated and closely followed by digital means. A much older German proverb has it “Wer schreibt, der bleibt!” (He who writes, stays [in business].)

The report presents a detailed work plan, ensuring coherence and consistency of the work to be carried out in the work packages. It results from the introductions to the work packages, presented at the kick-off meeting of SIM4NEXUS (July 11 & 12, 2016), also addressing the links with the other work packages. The deliverable also clarifies where we are going in the coming half year, what is required, from whom and by when.

The report presents an overview of the activities and actions to coordinate and to create synergies with other projects, funded under H2020 or from other sources. We focus to align up with MAGIC, the H2020 project on the Nexus funded under the same topic.

Task 8.3 ‘Quality Assurance’ aims at defining, implementing and maintaining a set of management structures to coordinate and monitor project management activities. In order to support that, Task 8.3 puts in place the following elements, to enable a coordinated action of consortium members to meet the necessary quality levels.

This report presents the agenda and outcomes of the first meeting of the External Advisory Board (EAB), held in Prague on May 30 and 31, 2017. Seven members of the EAB participated and discussed the achievements during the first year with the WP Leads. The program had three parts. First, the activities during the first year are presented by the work package leads and discussed with the EAB (Chapter 2 of the report). This took most of the first day. The EAB then met to internally discuss and prepare an initial feedback (Chapter 3 of the report). This feedback was presented by the Chair of the EAB (Associate Professor Jamie Pittock) at the start of Day 2. The second day did focus on two topics, (i) modelling and (ii) engagement. The two breakout sessions addressed specific items on these topics (Chapter 4 of the report). These were unanimously agreed by the EAB. Chapter 5 lists the members of the EAB and the participants from the project. Chapter 6 concludes on the next steps. Appendix A has the agenda of the meeting, and the consortium presentations are included in Part B of the deliverable.

This report is a progress report from SIM4NEXUS and minutes of the second meeting of the External Advisory Board, held in Exeter on November 14 & 15. The External Advisory Board welcomed the opportunity to participate in this meeting for the full two days (and the chairman of the EAB participated part of the working meeting on the third day as well). It was the second time that the EAB met, and participated in a SIM4NEXUS meeting.

This report is a progress report from SIM4NEXUS and summary of the third meeting of the External Advisory Board, held on 27 March 2020. Due to COVID-19 we decided to organize this meeting remotely. The EAB commented the project is quite groundbreaking, with solid scientific output and a sincere attempt at a more iterative and inclusive approach to the science-policy interface for the nexus in Europe. Also the data visualisations and the game interface in particular, are very impressive. Comments also indicate a more systematic-scale story is necessary to help situate the importance and value of the work. Also, more transparency is needed when communicating the modelling exercise and outputs. Finally, the EAB comments he project team would benefit from a collective internal evaluation and lessons learning exercise. Several follow-up actions are defined by the consortium. Two deliverables (Deliverable D1.5 and D2.5) will focus on the integration of work across the work packages. SIM4NEXUS will also organize an evaluation of the project (September 2020). Such an evaluation will follow-up to reach a lessons learning exercise. The evaluation framework will be used to test the contribution the project has made to nexus research and practice.

SIM4NEXUS-Space was developed as a task of SIM4NEXUS and its aim has been to develop process, and test satellite derived datasets for selected SDM variables, and to evaluate the out produced for year 2019. More info can be found here .